Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
