Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
